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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SEA vs TOR

Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays

Sunday, August 30, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SEA @ TOR simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SEATTLESEA
0·0
TORONTOTOR
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

SEA DUGOUTTOR DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SEA Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.2
CH83.5
CT87.2
CH84.9
CT88.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SEA Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SEA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TOR to win

47%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TOR -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TOR

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TOR wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSEA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Seattle wins

53%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESEA
LINEUP EDGESEA

SEA STARTER

Logan Gilbert

GOOD
5.5
PROJECTED Ks
112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 40% · 23% whiffSlider · 25% · 35% whiffSplit-Finger · 14% · 41% whiff

TOR STARTER

Max Scherzer

AVERAGE
2.9
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 14% whiffSlider · 19% · 21% whiffChangeup · 16% · 17% whiff

Max Scherzer grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Logan Gilbert grades good (Pitching+ 112)

SEA LINEUP

  1. 1Randy Arozarena (R)hit 65% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Dominic Canzone (L)hit 71% · HR 27%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Julio Rodríguez (R)hit 65% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Cal Raleigh (S)hit 54% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Josh Naylor (L)hit 62% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Taylor Ward (R)hit 57% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Cole Young (L)hit 57% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.P. Crawfordhit 50% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brock Rodden (S)hit 48% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

TOR LINEUP

  1. 1Brett Bateman (L)hit 60% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Vladimir Guerrero Jr.hit 64% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alejandro Kirk (R)hit 65% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4George Springer (R)hit 61% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nathan Lukes (L)hit 61% · HR 11%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 57% · HR 25%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andrés Giménez (L)hit 52% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Charles McAdoo (R)hit 49% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Myles Straw (R)hit 50% · HR 5%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SEA TOR

Game Markets

SEA @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

34%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

26%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

32%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore TOR by 0.92 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SEA 4.51, TOR 3.59
  • Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs Max Scherzer (TOR)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
LG

Logan Gilbert

SEA SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

39%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against TOR
MS

Max Scherzer

TOR SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

32%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 16% to reach 5+ against SEA
DC

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Max Scherzer
KO

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
CR

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Scherzer
RA

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Max Scherzer
AK

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
JR

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Max Scherzer
GS

George Springer

TOR · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
VJ

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
CY

Cole Young

SEA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
JN

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Max Scherzer
NL

Nathan Lukes

TOR · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
BB

Brett Bateman

TOR · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
TW

Taylor Ward

SEA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
AG

Andrés Giménez

TOR · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
JC

J.P. Crawford

SEA · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 25% against 28%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
MS

Myles Straw

TOR · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
CM

Charles McAdoo

TOR · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
BR

Brock Rodden

SEA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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