BETFLYAISIGN IN
PITTSBURGHPIT
66-71 · +4 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 2:15 PM ETSTL HOME PARK
68-69 · +3 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
93°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Braxton Ashcraft
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
3.59
IP
155.1
K/9
9.3
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS1.91 ERA · 22.4% K · 3.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
31%
26%
23%
15%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerSplit-Finger
Matthew Liberatore
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
5.44
IP
129.0
K/9
9.2
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.47
L5 STARTS6.21 ERA · 29.9% K · 4.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
23%
17%
15%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballChangeupSinkerCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Matthew Liberatore · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

+107 DraftKings48% book64% +16pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT STL

Game Markets

PIT @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

STL -1.5

32%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore STL by 0.32 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 4.40, STL 4.08
  • Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BA

Braxton Ashcraft

PIT SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

66%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against STL
ML

Matthew Liberatore

STL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

63%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRAXTON ASHCRAFT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.582
vs Left-handedK%28.2%OPS-against.726
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.710K%18.8%

MATTHEW LIBERATORE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.1%OPS-against.803
vs Left-handedK%24.6%OPS-against.847
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.758K%23.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs BRAXTON ASHCRAFT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs MATTHEW LIBERATORE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 1·STL 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
PIT 4·STL 7
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%STL
PIT 124 · STL 164 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-29PIT 6-2
2026-08-29STL 4-1
2026-05-21PIT 6-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT54¢ · 54%
STL50¢ · 50%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5— · —
STL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→7.5→8→8.5→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

STL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT93° · 8mph out to CF
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
93°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity29%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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