MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Zack Wheeler · Over 7.5 8+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
PHI @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
66%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
29%
Game Total
Over 8.5
39%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
41%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
20%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
47%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
24%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore LAA by 1.66 runs across 5,000 trials.
PHI SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
92%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
36%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
50%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
42%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
27%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
LAA SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
69%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
25%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight pitcher tilt.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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