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MIAMIMIA
68-68 · +3 NL EAST · L2 · 4-6 L10
@SUN 12:15 PM ETWSH HOME PARK
65-73 · +4 NL EAST · W3 · 4-6 L10
WASHINGTONWSH
Weather
83°F · 10mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Janson Junk
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
4.21
IP
98.1
K/9
6.2
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS2.81 ERA · 8.8% K · 5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
24%
20%
14%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSweeperCurveballSinker
Andrew Alvarez
LHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.72
IP
84.2
K/9
8.5
BB/9
4.0
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS3.16 ERA · 20.6% K · 9.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
25%
14%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Andrew Alvarez · Over 4.5 5+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

+126 FanDuel44% book63% +19pp

Janson Junk · Over 2.5 3+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

-164 FanDuel62% book79% +17pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETNationals 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA WSH

Game Markets

MIA @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

36%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

49%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.67 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.82, WSH 4.85
  • Janson Junk (MIA) vs Andrew Alvarez (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JJ

Janson Junk

MIA SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

46%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
  • 12% to reach 5+ against WSH
AA

Andrew Alvarez

WSH SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

27%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JANSON JUNK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%14.4%OPS-against.630
vs Left-handedK%17.4%OPS-against.798
WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.780K%23.9%

ANDREW ALVAREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.4%OPS-against.688
vs Left-handedK%22.1%OPS-against.680
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.735K%21.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

WSH BATTERS vs JANSON JUNK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs ANDREW ALVAREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 0·WSH 2
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
MIA 11·WSH 6
17 played · 2 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%WSH
MIA 158 · WSH 196 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-29WSH 5-4 · One-run game
2026-08-28WSH 9-2 · Blowout
2026-08-23MIA 6-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIA53¢ · 53%
WSH50¢ · 50%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
MIA -1.5— · —
WSH +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→7→9→8.5→9→8.5→9→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.288L15 team wOBA
-28 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

WSH OFFENSE

.280L15 team wOBA
-36 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT83° · 10mph out to CF
NATIONALS PARK
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
83°F
Wind10 mph out to CF
Humidity67%
Rain1%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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