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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

LAD vs DET

Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers

Sunday, August 30, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAD @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAD
0·0
DETROITDET
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

LAD DUGOUTDET DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH83.4
FB94.7
CT87.3
SL85
FB93.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAD Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

DET to win

52%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

DET -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL DET

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

DET wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLAD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Los Angeles D wins

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGELAD

LAD STARTER

Tyler Glasnow

AVERAGE
7.4
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 14% whiffCurveball · 28% · 49% whiffSinker · 24% · 24% whiff

DET STARTER

Framber Valdez

AVERAGE
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 45% · 10% whiffCurveball · 29% · 31% whiffChangeup · 19% · 21% whiff

Framber Valdez grades avg (Pitching+ 100) vs Tyler Glasnow grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Shohei Ohtani (L)hit 74% · HR 27%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Tommy Edman (S)hit 64% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Mookie Betts (R)hit 63% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Freddie Freeman (L)hit 69% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 66% · HR 19%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Miguel Rojas (R)hit 60% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Kyle Tucker (L)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Enrique Hernández (R)hit 51% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ben Rortvedt (L)hit 47% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Gleyber Torres (R)hit 56% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Colt Keith (L)hit 59% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 60% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Dillon Dingler (R)hit 56% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brett Callahan (L)hit 49% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Zach McKinstry (L)hit 46% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 51% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Max Clark (L)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Javier Báez (R)hit 46% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAD DET

Game Markets

LAD @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

65%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

28%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

40%

Run Line

DET -1.5

19%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

22%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore DET by 1.57 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAD 4.49, DET 2.92
  • Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs Framber Valdez (DET)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
TG

Tyler Glasnow

LAD SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

32%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

74%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.4 strikeouts
  • 88% to reach 5+ against DET
FV

Framber Valdez

DET SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

21%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against LAD
SO

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Framber Valdez
TH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Framber Valdez
FF

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Framber Valdez
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
TE

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Framber Valdez
MB

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Framber Valdez
MR

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Framber Valdez
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
KT

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Framber Valdez
EH

Enrique Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Framber Valdez
CK

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
BR

Ben Rortvedt

LAD · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 11%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Framber Valdez
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
BC

Brett Callahan

DET · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 60%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
JB

Javier Báez

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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