BETFLYAISIGN IN
HOUSTONHOU
68-68 · +1 AL WEST · L1 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 3:10 PM ETNYM HOME PARK
61-75 · +5 NL EAST · W1 · 4-6 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
81°F · 7mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Ethan Pecko
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
7.88
IP
8.0
K/9
5.6
BB/9
7.9
WHIP
1.88
L5 STARTS8.63 ERA · 12.8% K · 17.9% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Zac Thornton
LHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
2.88
IP
56.1
K/9
6.4
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS3.44 ERA · 15.9% K · 6.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
Cutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU NYM

Game Markets

HOU @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

28%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore NYM by 0.90 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.95, NYM 4.05
  • Ethan Pecko (HOU) vs Zac Thornton (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
EP

Ethan Pecko

HOU SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

17%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
  • 13% to reach 5+ against NYM
ZT

Zac Thornton

NYM SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

42%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ETHAN PECKO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%28.6%OPS-against.690
vs Left-handedK%4.0%OPS-against.101
NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.695K%23.3%

ZAC THORNTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.1%OPS-against.749
vs Left-handedK%15.5%OPS-against.478
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.731K%21.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs ETHAN PECKO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs ZAC THORNTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 1·NYM 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
HOU 3·NYM 5
8 played · 11 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%HOU
HOU 71 · NYM 52 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-29NYM 6-2
2026-08-28HOU 3-1
2026-03-21HOU 7-5
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
HOU49¢ · 49%
NYM55¢ · 55%
Total 8.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
HOU -1.5— · —
NYM +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→9→9.5→8.5→9.5→9→8.5→9→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.280L15 team wOBA
-36 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYM OFFENSE

.299L15 team wOBA
-17 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT81° · 7mph out to CF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind7 mph out to CF
Humidity51%
Rain7%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO