BETFLYAISIGN IN
CINCINNATICIN
64-72 · +5 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
@SUN 7:20 PM ETCHC HOME PARK
77-59 · +2 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 4-6 L10
CHICAGOCHC
Weather
77°F · 6mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Chase Burns
RHP · CINPROBABLE
STUFF+113
ERA
2.77
IP
139.2
K/9
10.6
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS4.45 ERA · 32.1% K · 7.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
57%
37%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
Shota Imanaga
LHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+93
ERA
3.78
IP
145.1
K/9
8.9
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.12
L5 STARTS4.23 ERA · 29.5% K · 4.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
33%
14%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSweeperSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Chase Burns · Over 14.5 15+ Outs

starter going deep into a manageable lineup

-180 Fanatics64% book83% +19pp

Shota Imanaga · Over 15.5 16+ Outs

elite efficiency, gets the bulk innings

-130 Fanatics57% book67% +11pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETReds 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CIN CHC

Game Markets

CIN @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CIN to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

28%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

CIN projects to outscore CHC by 0.84 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CIN 4.98, CHC 4.14
  • Chase Burns (CIN) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CB

Chase Burns

CIN SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

29%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

66%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

31%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.2 strikeouts
  • 85% to reach 5+ against CHC
SI

Shota Imanaga

CHC SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

53%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 73% to reach 5+ against CIN

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CHASE BURNS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%29.1%OPS-against.501
vs Left-handedK%28.8%OPS-against.728
CHC vs LHP (team)OPS.809K%21.7%

SHOTA IMANAGA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.1%OPS-against.714
vs Left-handedK%27.5%OPS-against.737
CIN vs RHP (team)OPS.692K%25.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CHC BATTERS vs CHASE BURNS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CIN BATTERS vs SHOTA IMANAGA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CIN 1·CHC 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CIN 4·CHC 7
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%CIN
CIN 173 · CHC 154 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-29CHC 17-5 · Blowout
2026-08-28CIN 10-8 · Slugfest
2026-07-12CHC 8-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CIN45¢ · 45%
CHC58¢ · 58%
Total 9
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
CIN -1.5— · —
CHC +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9.5→19.5→9last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CIN OFFENSE

.291L15 team wOBA
-25 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CHC OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT77° · 6mph out to CF
WRIGLEY FIELD
95HR
HR factor0.95 · below avg
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Wind-dependent — check gametime.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind6 mph out to CF
Humidity74%
Rain5%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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