MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Walker Buehler · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Nick Martinez · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
SD @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
46%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
51%
Run Line
TB -1.5
36%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
40%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.55 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
SD SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
44%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
11%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
TB SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
51%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Interim park post-Tropicana damage.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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