BETFLYAISIGN IN
PITTSBURGHPIT
65-71 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 2:15 PM ETSTL HOME PARK
68-68 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 4-6 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
88°F · 6mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Lake Bachar
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.70
IP
73.0
K/9
9.3
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS3.56 ERA · 18.6% K · 18.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
23%
18%
13%
11%
4-Seam FastballSliderSweeperCurveballSplit-Finger
Kyle Leahy
RHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.13
IP
126.1
K/9
8.2
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS1.44 ERA · 27.3% K · 3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
16%
16%
13%
13%
13%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerChangeupSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT STL

Game Markets

PIT @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

STL -1.5

33%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.78 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PIT 4.48, STL 4.30
  • Lake Bachar (PIT) vs Kyle Leahy (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LB

Lake Bachar

PIT SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against STL
KL

Kyle Leahy

STL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 30% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

LAKE BACHAR SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.554
vs Left-handedK%25.9%OPS-against.703
STL vs RHP (team)OPS.694K%21.6%

KYLE LEAHY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.3%OPS-against.597
vs Left-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.839
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.758K%23.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs LAKE BACHAR

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs KYLE LEAHY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 0·STL 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
PIT 3·STL 7
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%STL
PIT 123 · STL 164 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-29STL 4-1
2026-05-21PIT 6-2
2026-05-20PIT 7-0 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT8¢ · 8%
STL99¢ · 99%
Total 5.5
Over10¢ · 10%
Under97¢ · 97%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5— · —
STL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→5.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.276L15 team wOBA
-40 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

STL OFFENSE

.311L15 team wOBA
-5 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT88° · 6mph out to LF
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind6 mph out to LF
Humidity39%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO