MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Ryan Johnson · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
PHI @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
69%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
25%
Game Total
Over 8.5
44%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
46%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
17%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
54%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
24%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore LAA by 2.29 runs across 5,000 trials.
PHI SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
97%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
92%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
83%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
54%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
95%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
LAA SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
67%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
27%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight pitcher tilt.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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