BETFLYAISIGN IN
MIAMIMIA
68-67 · +3 NL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 4:05 PM ETWSH HOME PARK
64-73 · +4 NL EAST · W2 · 4-6 L10
WASHINGTONWSH
Weather
86°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Sandy Alcantara
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.38
IP
183.2
K/9
6.7
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.18
L5 STARTS1.36 ERA · 16.7% K · 7.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
22%
19%
14%
8%
SinkerChangeup4-Seam FastballCutterSweeperSliderCurveball
Cade Cavalli
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
3.21
IP
148.2
K/9
10.2
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.21
L5 STARTS1.97 ERA · 32.2% K · 5.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
28%
16%
11%
8%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSinkerSweeperChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETNationals 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA WSH

Game Markets

MIA @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

41%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

WSH projects to outscore MIA by 0.54 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.39, WSH 4.93
  • Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs Cade Cavalli (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SA

Sandy Alcantara

MIA SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

80%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

80%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

69%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against WSH
CC

Cade Cavalli

WSH SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 73% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SANDY ALCANTARA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.9%OPS-against.631
vs Left-handedK%18.3%OPS-against.680
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.746K%20.6%

CADE CAVALLI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.5%OPS-against.625
vs Left-handedK%26.1%OPS-against.717
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.736K%21.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

WSH BATTERS vs SANDY ALCANTARA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs CADE CAVALLI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 0·WSH 1
4-game set · gm 2 of 4
2026 SEASON
MIA 11·WSH 5
16 played · 3 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%WSH
MIA 158 · WSH 195 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-28WSH 9-2 · Blowout
2026-08-23MIA 6-2
2026-08-22MIA 4-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIA51¢ · 51%
WSH53¢ · 53%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
MIA -1.5— · —
WSH +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.299L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

WSH OFFENSE

.283L15 team wOBA
-33 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT86° · 4mph out to LF
NATIONALS PARK
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
86°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity38%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO