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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

KC vs CLE

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians

Saturday, August 29, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC
0·0
CLEVELANDCLE
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

KC DUGOUTCLE DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

CV78.5
CH83.6
CV78.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CLE to win

64%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CLE -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CLE

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CLE wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 82 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Cleveland wins

55%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECLE
LINEUP EDGEKC

KC STARTER

Seth Lugo

SHAKY
3.2
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 20% · 13% whiffCurveball · 18% · 23% whiffCutter · 16% · 24% whiff

Watch out: Sinker, 4-Seam Fastball are getting hit hard lately.

CLE STARTER

Parker Messick

GOOD
5.8
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 40% · 27% whiffChangeup · 24% · 36% whiffSinker · 16% · 10% whiff

Parker Messick grades good (Pitching+ 105) vs Seth Lugo grades poor (Pitching+ 95)

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Carter Jensen (L)hit 62% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 73% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 70% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Salvador Perez (R)hit 66% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nick Loftin (R)hit 56% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Tyler Tolbert (R)hit 60% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Isaac Collins (S)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Matthew Lugohit 56% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Luke Maile (R)hit 49% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

CLE LINEUP

  1. 1Steven Kwan (L)hit 66% · HR 5%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Chase DeLauter (L)hit 70% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3José Ramírez (S)hit 63% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jo Adell (R)hit 64% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Angel Martínez (S)hit 59% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6David Fryhit 46% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Angel Genao (S)hit 58% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Hedges (R)hit 51% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 51% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

KC CLE

Game Markets

KC @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

66%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

59%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

49%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

54%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore KC by 1.49 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 3.80, CLE 5.29
  • Seth Lugo (KC) vs Parker Messick (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SL

Seth Lugo

KC SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

90%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

32%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against CLE
PM

Parker Messick

CLE SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 70% to reach 5+ against KC
JC

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Parker Messick
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Seth Lugo
BJ

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Parker Messick
SP

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Parker Messick
CD

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Seth Lugo
CJ

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Parker Messick
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Seth Lugo
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 32% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Seth Lugo
TT

Tyler Tolbert

KC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Parker Messick
ML

Matthew Lugo

KC · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Parker Messick
AM

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Seth Lugo
AG

Angel Genao

CLE · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Seth Lugo
NL

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Parker Messick
IC

Isaac Collins

KC · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Parker Messick
DF

David Fry

CLE · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 11%.

  • Batting 6
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Seth Lugo
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Seth Lugo
AH

Austin Hedges

CLE · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Seth Lugo
LM

Luke Maile

KC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 22% against 27%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Parker Messick

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.