BETFLYAISIGN IN
HOUSTONHOU
68-67 · +1 AL WEST · W2 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 4:10 PM ETNYM HOME PARK
60-75 · +5 NL EAST · L3 · 4-6 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
79°F · 4mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Bennett Sousa
LHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
6.27
IP
18.2
K/9
10.1
BB/9
4.8
WHIP
1.82
L5 STARTS18.00 ERA · 19.2% K · 7.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
73%
Slider
Nolan McLean
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
3.21
IP
148.2
K/9
10.2
BB/9
3.5
WHIP
1.14
L5 STARTS2.78 ERA · 21.3% K · 12.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
19%
17%
13%
10%
Sinker4-Seam FastballSweeperCurveballCutterChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU NYM

Game Markets

HOU @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

37%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

27%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

27%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore NYM by 0.75 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.07, NYM 3.31
  • Bennett Sousa (HOU) vs Nolan McLean (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BS

Bennett Sousa

HOU SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

13%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

44%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

18%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 73% to reach 5+ against NYM
NM

Nolan McLean

NYM SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

15%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

62%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
  • 80% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BENNETT SOUSA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%35.7%OPS-against.636
vs Left-handedK%13.0%OPS-against.101
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.693K%22.5%

NOLAN MCLEAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%28.2%OPS-against.525
vs Left-handedK%26.5%OPS-against.702
HOU vs LHP (team)OPS.707K%20.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs BENNETT SOUSA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs NOLAN MCLEAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 1·NYM 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
HOU 3·NYM 4
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%HOU
HOU 71 · NYM 51 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-28HOU 3-1
2026-03-21HOU 7-5
2026-03-19NYM 6-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
HOU45¢ · 45%
NYM59¢ · 59%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
HOU -1.5— · —
NYM +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.280L15 team wOBA
-36 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYM OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT79° · 4mph out to RF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
79°F
Wind4 mph out to RF
Humidity37%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO