COLORADOCOL
52-83 · +5 NL WEST · L2 · 2-8 L10
@SAT 4:10 PM ETATL HOME PARK
80-55 · +1 NL EAST · W5 · 6-4 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
82°F · 1mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Ryan Feltner
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
6.08
IP
97.2
K/9
6.5
BB/9
4.0
WHIP
1.55
L5 STARTS7.19 ERA · 12.5% K · 10.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
26%
15%
13%
11%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerSweeperCurveball
Martín Pérez
LHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+87
ERA
3.12
IP
115.1
K/9
6.6
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.21
L5 STARTS1.80 ERA · 15.7% K · 10.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
30%
23%
8%
SinkerChangeupCutterCurveball4-Seam Fastball
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

COL ATL

Game Markets

COL @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

66%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

69%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

46%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

63%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore COL by 1.05 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: COL 4.91, ATL 5.96
  • Ryan Feltner (COL) vs Martín Pérez (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RF

Ryan Feltner

COL SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against ATL
MP

Martín Pérez

ATL SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

72%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

45%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against COL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

RYAN FELTNER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%15.7%OPS-against.870
vs Left-handedK%16.4%OPS-against.876
ATL vs LHP (team)OPS.716K%20.9%

MARTÍN PÉREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.2%OPS-against.642
vs Left-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.709
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.756K%21.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs RYAN FELTNER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

COL BATTERS vs MARTÍN PÉREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
COL 0·ATL 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
COL 0·ATL 4
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%ATL
COL 47 · ATL 61 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-28ATL 6-4
2026-05-03ATL 11-6 · Slugfest
2026-05-03ATL 9-1 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
COL35¢ · 35%
ATL68¢ · 68%
Total 9
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
COL -1.5 ·
ATL +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

COL OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

ATL OFFENSE

.285L15 team wOBA
-31 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT82° · 1mph out to LF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind1 mph out to LF
Humidity65%
Rain11%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO