MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Kevin Gausman · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup
Andrew Abbott · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CIN @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
CHC to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
60%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
60%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
43%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
56%
THE READ
CHC projects to outscore CIN by 0.76 runs across 5,000 trials.
CIN SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
33%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
CHC SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
73%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
14%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
86%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
57%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
66%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 6.0 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Wind-dependent — check gametime.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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