BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
66-69 · +4 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 10:05 PM ETATH HOME PARK
53-82 · +4 AL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
ATH
Weather
—
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Shane Baz
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
4.04
IP
151.1
K/9
8.0
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS4.44 ERA · 23.5% K · 6.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
33%
18%
4-Seam FastballCurveballCutterSinkerChangeup
Jack Perkins
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
6.68
IP
90.1
K/9
10.4
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.48
L5 STARTS7.61 ERA · 22.9% K · 10.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
31%
17%
9%
4-Seam FastballSweeperChangeupCutterSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETATH 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL ATH

Game Markets

BAL @ ATH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

ATH F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

ATH -1.5

35%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.15 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: BAL 4.08, ATH 4.07
  • Shane Baz (BAL) vs Jack Perkins (ATH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SB

Shane Baz

BAL SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

79%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

57%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against ATH
JP

Jack Perkins

ATH SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

19%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

41%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
  • 80% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SHANE BAZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.5%OPS-against.648
vs Left-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.773
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.722K%21.4%

JACK PERKINS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.6%OPS-against.815
vs Left-handedK%28.8%OPS-against.822
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.717K%23.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATH BATTERS vs SHANE BAZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs JACK PERKINS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 1·ATH 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 2·ATH 2
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
90%BAL
BAL 53 · ATH 6 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-29BAL 4-3 · One-run game
2026-05-10BAL 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-05-09ATH 6-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.306L15 team wOBA
-10 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

ATH OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT

Park factors unavailable.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO