BETFLYAISIGN IN
ARIZONAARI
—
@2026-08-29SF HOME PARK
55-80 · +4 NL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
SAN FRANCISCOSF
Weather
68°F · 18mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGiants 56%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

ARI SF

Game Markets

ARI @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SF to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

SF -1.5

39%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

SF projects to outscore ARI by 0.51 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ARI 3.96, SF 4.47
  • Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Matt Wilkinson (SF)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
MK

Merrill Kelly

ARI SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

43%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against SF
MW

Matt Wilkinson

SF SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

61%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.1 strikeouts
  • 5% to reach 5+ against ARI
RD

Rafael Devers

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

35%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

39%

RBIs

1+ RBI

48%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Merrill Kelly
BE

Bryce Eldridge

SF · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Merrill Kelly
CC

Corbin Carroll

ARI · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 30% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
GM

Gabriel Moreno

ARI · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Merrill Kelly
DG

Drew Gilbert

SF · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Merrill Kelly
IV

Ildemaro Vargas

ARI · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
TH

Turner Hill

SF · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Merrill Kelly
NA

Nolan Arenado

ARI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
GP

Geraldo Perdomo

ARI · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
TT

Tim Tawa

ARI · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
JF

Jose Fernandez

ARI · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 7
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
RW

Ryan Waldschmidt

ARI · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
JL

Jordan Lawlar

ARI · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
DC

Drew Cavanaugh

SF · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Merrill Kelly
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ RBIs at 10% against 11%.

  • Batting 7
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Merrill Kelly
NF

Nate Furman

SF · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Merrill Kelly
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Merrill Kelly
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

SF vs LHP (team)OPS.665K%23.5%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs RHP (team)OPS.687K%19.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SF BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ARI 0·SF 1
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
ARI 0·SF 3
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%SF
ARI 0 · SF 180 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-29AZ 10-6 · Slugfest
2026-08-28SF 6-1
2026-07-02SF 6-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ARI53¢ · 53%
SF50¢ · 50%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
ARI -1.5— · —
SF +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

ARI OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-7 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

SF OFFENSE

.324L15 team wOBA
+8 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT68° · 18mph out to CF
ORACLE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.90 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Marine air kills carry to RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
68°F
Wind18 mph out to CF
Humidity61%
Rain0%

Wind out to CF · HR tailwind.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

GIANTS 56%

Mean score sim 4.0–4.5 · projected total 8.4 runs · built on locked lineups

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