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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

TEX vs MIL

Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers

Friday, August 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TEX @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TEXASTEX
0·0
MILWAUKEEMIL
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

TEX DUGOUTMIL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

CV78.2
FB94.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIL to win

61%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 73 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Milwaukee wins

47%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIL
LINEUP EDGEMIL

TEX STARTER

Cal Quantrill

AVERAGE
3.7
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 26% · 16% whiffSplit-Finger · 23% · 23% whiffCutter · 23% · 15% whiff

MIL STARTER

Shane Drohan

AVERAGE
6.0
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 29% · 31% whiffSlider · 21% · 40% whiffSinker · 20% · 13% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Shane Drohan grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Cal Quantrill grades avg (Pitching+ 95)

TEX LINEUP

  1. 1Joc Pederson (L)hit 61% · HR 23%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Corey Seager (L)hit 58% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Wyatt Langford (R)hit 58% · HR 15%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 54% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Evan Carter (L)hit 45% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jake Burger (R)hit 53% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cody Freeman (R)hit 47% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Danny Jansenhit 37% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    37%

    1+ HIT

    7%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    16%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Brice Turang (L)hit 64% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jackson Chourio (R)hit 71% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jake Bauers (L)hit 67% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4William Contreras (R)hit 66% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Christian Yelich (L)hit 62% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Joey Ortiz (R)hit 60% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 63% · HR 11%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Sal Frelickhit 54% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9David Hamilton (L)hit 52% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

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169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TEX MIL

Game Markets

TEX @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

43%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

36%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore TEX by 0.87 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TEX 3.94, MIL 4.80
  • Cal Quantrill (TEX) vs Shane Drohan (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CQ

Cal Quantrill

TEX SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

87%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

82%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

70%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against MIL
SD

Shane Drohan

MIL SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

13%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

68%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.0 strikeouts
  • 76% to reach 5+ against TEX
JP

Joc Pederson

TEX · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Shane Drohan
JB

Jake Bauers

MIL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
JC

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
WC

William Contreras

MIL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
WL

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Shane Drohan
CS

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Shane Drohan
GM

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
JB

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Drohan
BT

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
CY

Christian Yelich

MIL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
JO

Joey Ortiz

MIL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
SF

Sal Frelick

MIL · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
BN

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Shane Drohan
ED

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Shane Drohan
DH

David Hamilton

MIL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Cal Quantrill
CF

Cody Freeman

TEX · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Drohan
EC

Evan Carter

TEX · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Drohan
DJ

Danny Jansen

TEX · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

38%

Hits

2+ hits

7%

Total Bases

2+ bases

18%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 38% against 60%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Drohan

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.