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AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

SEA vs TOR

Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays

Friday, August 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SEA @ TOR simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SEATTLESEA
0·0
TORONTOTOR
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

SEA DUGOUTTOR DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Randy Arozarena (R) vs HP

FB95.3
FB94.1
CV80.6
FB95.5
FB95

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Randy Arozarena in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · RANDY AROZARENA

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TOR to win

57%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TOR -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TOR

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TOR wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYRandy Arozarena at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 81 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Toronto wins

52%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETOR
LINEUP EDGETOR

SEA STARTER

Emerson Hancock

AVERAGE
4.0
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 39% · 23% whiffSinker · 24% · 12% whiffSweeper · 16% · 38% whiff

TOR STARTER

Dylan Cease

AVERAGE
8.4
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 37% · 28% whiffSlider · 30% · 44% whiffChangeup · 12% · 53% whiff

Dylan Cease grades avg (Pitching+ 105) vs Emerson Hancock grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

SEA LINEUP

  1. 1Randy Arozarena (R)hit 56% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Dominic Canzone (L)hit 60% · HR 20%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Julio Rodríguez (R)hit 56% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Josh Naylor (L)hit 55% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Cal Raleigh (S)hit 41% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    41%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Cole Young (L)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Taylor Ward (R)hit 45% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.P. Crawfordhit 41% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    41%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brock Rodden (S)hit 41% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    41%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

TOR LINEUP

  1. 1Brett Bateman (L)hit 62% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Nathan Lukes (L)hit 63% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Vladimir Guerrero Jr.hit 67% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4George Springer (R)hit 62% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jesús Sánchez (L)hit 64% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 57% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andrés Giménez (L)hit 54% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Ernie Clement (R)hit 59% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brandon Valenzuela (S)hit 53% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SEA TOR

Game Markets

SEA @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

31%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

34%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

38%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

28%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

32%

THE READ

TOR projects to outscore SEA by 0.42 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SEA 3.26, TOR 3.68
  • Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs Dylan Cease (TOR)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
EH

Emerson Hancock

SEA SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

58%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against TOR
DC

Dylan Cease

TOR SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

47%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

78%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

25%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

14%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.4 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against SEA
DC

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Dylan Cease
KO

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Emerson Hancock
VJ

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Emerson Hancock
JS

Jesús Sánchez

TOR · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Emerson Hancock
GS

George Springer

TOR · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Emerson Hancock
NL

Nathan Lukes

TOR · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Emerson Hancock
CR

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

43%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Dylan Cease
BB

Brett Bateman

TOR · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Emerson Hancock
RA

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Dylan Cease
JR

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Dylan Cease
EC

Ernie Clement

TOR · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Emerson Hancock
BV

Brandon Valenzuela

TOR · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Emerson Hancock
JN

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Dylan Cease
AG

Andrés Giménez

TOR · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Emerson Hancock
CY

Cole Young

SEA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 57%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dylan Cease
TW

Taylor Ward

SEA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dylan Cease
BR

Brock Rodden

SEA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

43%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ RBIs at 7% against 9%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dylan Cease
JC

J.P. Crawford

SEA · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

43%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 43% against 57%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dylan Cease

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.