AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPIT vs STL
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, August 28, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PIT @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
STL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
STL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL STL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
STL wins F5
event 1 / 77 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDPittsburgh wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
PIT STARTER
Jared Jones
GOOD- 5.2
- PROJECTED Ks
- 108
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
STL STARTER
Quinn Mathews
AVERAGE- 4.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 103
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Quinn Mathews grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Jared Jones grades good (Pitching+ 108)
PIT LINEUP
1Jared Triolo (R)hit 60% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
2Esmerlyn Valdez (R)hit 62% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 64% · HR 11%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
4Oneil Cruzhit 64% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
5Nick Gonzales (R)hit 64% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
6Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 60% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
7Jake Mangum (S)hit 60% · HR 4%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
8Nick Yorkehit 54% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
9Henry Davis (R)hit 45% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
45%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
STL LINEUP
1JJ Wetherholt (L)hit 61% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
2Iván Herrera (R)hit 59% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
3Alec Burleson (L)hit 68% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4Jordan Walker (R)hit 64% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
5José Fermín (R)hit 55% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
6Nathan Church (L)hit 55% · HR 9%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
7Joshua Báez (R)hit 50% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
8Nolan Gormanhit 46% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
9Jimmy Crooks (L)hit 48% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PIT @ STL · full-game reads
Moneyline
PIT to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
STL F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
41%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
43%
Run Line
STL -1.5
31%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
34%
THE READ
PIT projects to outscore STL by 0.39 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: PIT 4.18, STL 3.79
- Jared Jones (PIT) vs Quinn Mathews (STL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Jared Jones
PIT SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
29%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
6%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
28%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
17%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
- 61% to reach 5+ against STL
Quinn Mathews
STL SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
63%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
5%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
- 45% to reach 5+ against PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez
PIT · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Quinn Mathews
Oneil Cruz
PIT · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Quinn Mathews
Jordan Walker
STL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Jared Jones
Alec Burleson
STL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jared Jones
Rafael Flores Jr.
PIT · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Quinn Mathews
Nick Gonzales
PIT · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Quinn Mathews
Bryan Reynolds
PIT · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Quinn Mathews
Jared Triolo
PIT · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Quinn Mathews
JJ Wetherholt
STL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Jared Jones
Jake Mangum
PIT · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing Quinn Mathews
Nolan Gorman
STL · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 49%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Jones
Iván Herrera
STL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Jared Jones
José Fermín
STL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Jones
Nathan Church
STL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Jared Jones
Henry Davis
PIT · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 11%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Quinn Mathews
Nick Yorke
PIT · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Quinn Mathews
Jimmy Crooks
STL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 11%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Jones
Joshua Báez
STL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 60%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Jared Jones
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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