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MIA vs WSH

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals

Friday, August 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIA @ WSH simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MIAMIMIA
0·0
WASHINGTONWSH
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

MIA DUGOUTWSH DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB93.3
FB93.7
SL83.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

WSH to win

58%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

WSH -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL WSH

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

WSH wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 74 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Miami wins

54%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIA
LINEUP EDGEMIA

MIA STARTER

Sandy Alcantara

AVERAGE
4.0
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 27% · 12% whiffChangeup · 20% · 28% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 19% · 21% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

WSH STARTER

Cade Cavalli

AVERAGE
5.6
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 33% · 22% whiffCurveball · 27% · 39% whiffSinker · 13% · 12% whiff

Cade Cavalli grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Sandy Alcantara grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

MIA LINEUP

  1. 1Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 71% · HR 30%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    58%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Agustín Ramírez (R)hit 64% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Otto Lopez (R)hit 71% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Javier Sanoja (R)hit 69% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Xavier Edwards (S)hit 62% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Stowershit 64% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Leo Jiménez (R)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Esteury Ruiz (R)hit 55% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Joe Mack (L)hit 57% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

WSH LINEUP

  1. 1CJ Abrams (L)hit 66% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Abimelec Ortiz (L)hit 63% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dylan Crews (R)hit 57% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Daylen Lile (L)hit 62% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brady House (R)hit 55% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 54% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Harry Ford (R)hit 50% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Andrés Chaparro (R)hit 57% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jacob Young (R)hit 53% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIA WSH

Game Markets

MIA @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

42%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

WSH projects to outscore MIA by 0.69 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.32, WSH 5.01
  • Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs Cade Cavalli (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SA

Sandy Alcantara

MIA SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

92%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

84%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

74%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against WSH
CC

Cade Cavalli

WSH SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against MIA
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Cade Cavalli
CA

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
KS

Kyle Stowers

MIA · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cade Cavalli
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Cavalli
AC

Andrés Chaparro

WSH · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
JS

Javier Sanoja

MIA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cade Cavalli
AO

Abimelec Ortiz

WSH · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
JM

Joe Mack

MIA · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Cade Cavalli
AR

Agustín Ramírez

MIA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Cavalli
XE

Xavier Edwards

MIA · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 35% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Cavalli
DL

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
ER

Esteury Ruiz

MIA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Cavalli
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 63%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
BH

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
JV

Jorbit Vivas

WSH · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
LJ

Leo Jiménez

MIA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Cavalli
JY

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
HF

Harry Ford

WSH · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.