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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

KC vs CLE

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians

Friday, August 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC
0·0
CLEVELANDCLE
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

KC DUGOUTCLE DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB94.1
FB91.7
FB93.3
CH84.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CLE to win

55%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CLE -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CLE

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CLE wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 76 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Cleveland wins

54%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEKC
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

KC STARTER

Daniel Lynch IV

AVERAGE
3.3
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 30% · 14% whiffChangeup · 24% · 28% whiffSlider · 22% · 41% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

CLE STARTER

Foster Griffin

AVERAGE
4.4
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 33% · 20% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 17% · 17% whiffSweeper · 14% · 31% whiff

Foster Griffin grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Daniel Lynch IV grades avg (Pitching+ 104)

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Carter Jensen (L)hit 62% · HR 20%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 74% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 71% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Salvador Perez (R)hit 60% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Vinnie Pasquantinohit 63% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Loftin (R)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Isaac Collins (S)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Josh Rojas (L)hit 48% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Kyle Isbel (L)hit 51% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

CLE LINEUP

  1. 1Steven Kwan (L)hit 69% · HR 4%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Chase DeLauter (L)hit 68% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3José Ramírez (S)hit 64% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jo Adell (R)hit 61% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 67% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Travis Bazzana (L)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Patrick Bailey (S)hit 54% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Petey Halpin (L)hit 57% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 55% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

KC CLE

Game Markets

KC @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

37%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore KC by 0.27 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 4.09, CLE 4.36
  • Daniel Lynch IV (KC) vs Foster Griffin (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DI

Daniel Lynch IV

KC SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against CLE
FG

Foster Griffin

CLE SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against KC
JC

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Foster Griffin
BJ

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Foster Griffin
CJ

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Foster Griffin
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
CD

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
SP

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Foster Griffin
VP

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Foster Griffin
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
PH

Petey Halpin

CLE · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
PB

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
NL

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin
IC

Isaac Collins

KC · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin
KI

Kyle Isbel

KC · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin
JR

Josh Rojas

KC · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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