MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Hunter Brown · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
stuff doesn't translate to Ks vs this lineup
Christian Scott · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
HOU @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
39%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
43%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
31%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
33%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore NYM by 0.32 runs across 5,000 trials.
HOU SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
51%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
38%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
NYM SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
75%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
13%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
57%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
16%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
40%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
27%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Deep OF, dead air.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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