MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Luis Castillo · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Luis Castillo · Over 15.5 16+ Outs
starter going deep into a manageable lineup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CWS @ MIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
MIN F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
53%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
MIN -1.5
40%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
MIN projects to outscore CWS by 0.48 runs across 5,000 trials.
CWS SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
48%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
20%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
MIN SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
41%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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