BETFLYAISIGN IN
COLORADOCOL
52-82 · +5 NL WEST · L1 · 2-8 L10
@FRI 7:15 PM ETATL HOME PARK
79-55 · +1 NL EAST · W4 · 5-5 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
89°F · 3mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Tomoyuki Sugano
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+81
ERA
4.96
IP
121.2
K/9
5.3
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS6.07 ERA · 13.5% K · 3.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
22%
20%
19%
11%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSinkerSliderSweeperCutterCurveball
Grant Holmes
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+89
ERA
3.64
IP
123.2
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS3.19 ERA · 15.9% K · 10.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
32%
10%
8%
Slider4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballCutterChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

COL ATL

Game Markets

COL @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

63%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

66%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

46%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

61%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore COL by 1.18 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: COL 4.69, ATL 5.87
  • Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) vs Grant Holmes (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TS

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.4 strikeouts
  • 10% to reach 5+ against ATL
GH

Grant Holmes

ATL SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against COL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

TOMOYUKI SUGANO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%14.4%OPS-against.761
vs Left-handedK%13.2%OPS-against.915
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.726K%22.1%

GRANT HOLMES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.7%OPS-against.733
vs Left-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.704
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.757K%21.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs TOMOYUKI SUGANO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

COL BATTERS vs GRANT HOLMES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
COL 0·ATL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
COL 0·ATL 3
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%ATL
COL 47 · ATL 60 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-03ATL 11-6 · Slugfest
2026-05-03ATL 9-1 · Blowout
2026-05-02ATL 8-6
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
COL34¢ · 34%
ATL69¢ · 69%
Total 8.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
COL -1.5— · —
ATL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

COL OFFENSE

.306L15 team wOBA
-10 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

ATL OFFENSE

.276L15 team wOBA
-40 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT89° · 3mph out to LF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
89°F
Wind3 mph out to LF
Humidity46%
Rain10%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO