BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

BOS vs NYY

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Friday, August 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BOS @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BOSTONBOS
0·0
NEW YORKNYY
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

BOS DUGOUTNYY DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB92.7
FB94.6
CH84.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYY to win

56%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYY -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYY

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYY wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 79 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Boston wins

69%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

NYY Over 3.5 runs

58%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · hitter-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGENYY

BOS STARTER

Patrick Sandoval

AVERAGE
5.4
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Slider · 27% · 28% whiffChangeup · 25% · 44% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 20% · 18% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

NYY STARTER

Cam Schlittler

ELITE
6.7
PROJECTED Ks
115
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 44% · 34% whiffCutter · 26% · 24% whiffSinker · 20% · 17% whiff

Cam Schlittler grades elite (Pitching+ 115) vs Patrick Sandoval grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Nick Sogard (S)hit 61% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)hit 61% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 61% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Willson Contreras (R)hit 63% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Adley Rutschman (S)hit 57% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Caleb Durbin (R)hit 56% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Mickey Gasper (S)hit 57% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jarren Duran (L)hit 50% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Anthony Seigler (S)hit 52% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Paul Goldschmidt (R)hit 66% · HR 21%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ben Rice (L)hit 70% · HR 30%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Cody Bellingerhit 63% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Heliot Ramos (R)hit 60% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Trent Grisham (L)hit 59% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 62% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)hit 58% · HR 18%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8José Caballero (R)hit 51% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Austin Wells (L)hit 50% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BOS NYY

Game Markets

BOS @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

54%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

44%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore BOS by 0.99 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 3.77, NYY 4.76
  • Patrick Sandoval (BOS) vs Cam Schlittler (NYY)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
PS

Patrick Sandoval

BOS SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

63%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against NYY
CS

Cam Schlittler

NYY SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

22%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
  • 80% to reach 5+ against BOS
BR

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
WC

Willson Contreras

BOS · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
PG

Paul Goldschmidt

NYY · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
JJ

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
HR

Heliot Ramos

NYY · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
CB

Cody Bellinger

NYY · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
TG

Trent Grisham

NYY · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
GJ

George Lombard Jr.

NYY · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
CR

Ceddanne Rafaela

BOS · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
AR

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
MG

Mickey Gasper

BOS · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
AW

Austin Wells

NYY · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 14%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
AS

Anthony Seigler

BOS · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
JC

José Caballero

NYY · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
JD

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cam Schlittler

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.