BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
65-69 · +4 AL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@FRI 9:40 PM ETATH HOME PARK
53-81 · +4 AL WEST · W2 · 4-6 L10
ATH
Weather
—
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Brandon Young
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.50
IP
123.1
K/9
7.2
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS5.14 ERA · 16.7% K · 9.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
41%
20%
14%
13%
12%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerCurveball
Jacob Lopez
LHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+93
ERA
4.98
IP
94.0
K/9
8.6
BB/9
4.5
WHIP
1.48
L5 STARTS2.47 ERA · 31.6% K · 6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
31%
20%
10%
4-Seam FastballSliderCutterChangeupSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL ATH

Game Markets

BAL @ ATH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

ATH F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

ATH -1.5

33%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore ATH by 0.29 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 4.38, ATH 4.09
  • Brandon Young (BAL) vs Jacob Lopez (ATH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BY

Brandon Young

BAL SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

81%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against ATH
JL

Jacob Lopez

ATH SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 59% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRANDON YOUNG SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%23.1%OPS-against.804
vs Left-handedK%15.7%OPS-against.680
ATH vs LHP (team)OPS.714K%24.7%

JACOB LOPEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.3%OPS-against.824
vs Left-handedK%24.8%OPS-against.589
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.718K%23.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATH BATTERS vs BRANDON YOUNG

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs JACOB LOPEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 0·ATH 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 1·ATH 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
90%BAL
BAL 52 · ATH 6 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-10BAL 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-05-09ATH 6-2
2026-05-08ATH 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.318L15 team wOBA
+2 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

ATH OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT

Park factors unavailable.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO