SAN DIEGOSD
72-62 · +2 NL WEST · W1 · 6-4 L10
@2026-08-27TB HOME PARK
79-54 · +1 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
TAMPA BAYTB
Weather
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD TB

Game Markets

SD @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

TB -1.5

35%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

33%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.61 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SD 3.72, TB 3.89
  • Casey Mize (SD) vs Shane McClanahan (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CM

Casey Mize

SD SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

61%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

32%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against TB
SM

Shane McClanahan

TB SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

30%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

32%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

TB vs LHP (team)OPS.683K%18.2%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

SD vs RHP (team)OPS.709K%21.6%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

TB BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 0·TB 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
SD 0·TB 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
67%TB
SD 7 · TB 14 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-04-27TB 4-2
2025-04-27TB 4-1
2025-04-26TB 1-0 · Pitchers duel
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SD47¢ · 47%
TB57¢ · 57%
Total 7.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
SD -1.5 ·
TB +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.577.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.321L15 team wOBA
+5 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

TB OFFENSE

.311L15 team wOBA
-5 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT
STEINBRENNER FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Interim park post-Tropicana damage.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RAYS 54%

Mean score sim 3.73.9 · projected total 7.6 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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