PITTSBURGHPIT
65-70 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
@2026-08-27STL HOME PARK
67-68 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 3-7 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT STL

Game Markets

PIT @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

STL -1.5

33%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.64 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PIT 4.41, STL 4.23
  • Jared Jones (PIT) vs Quinn Mathews (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JJ

Jared Jones

PIT SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

23%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

18%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against STL
QM

Quinn Mathews

STL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

14%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

STL vs LHP (team)OPS.714K%18.8%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.759K%23.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 0·STL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
PIT 3·STL 6
9 played · 10 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%STL
PIT 123 · STL 163 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-21PIT 6-2
2026-05-20PIT 7-0 · Blowout
2026-05-19STL 9-6 · Slugfest
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT54¢ · 54%
STL50¢ · 50%
Total 7
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5 ·
STL +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT87last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.272L15 team wOBA
-44 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

STL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
ENVIRONMENT
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

CARDINALS 51%

Mean score sim 4.44.2 · projected total 8.6 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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