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MIL vs NYM

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets

Thursday, August 27, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL
0·0
NEW YORKNYM
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIL DUGOUTNYM DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB95.3
FB93.2
FB94.7
CH86.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYM to win

24%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYM -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYM

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYM wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

New York M wins

76%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

MIL Over 4.5 runs

41%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 10-for-32 (.312) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · 73°F, 20mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIL
LINEUP EDGEMIL

MIL STARTER

Jacob Misiorowski

ELITE
9.7
PROJECTED Ks
130
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 64% · 42% whiffCutter · 13% · 21% whiffSlider · 11% · 35% whiff

NYM STARTER

Sean Manaea

AVERAGE
5.0
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 39% · 22% whiffSweeper · 31% · 32% whiffSinker · 20% · 8% whiff

Sean Manaea grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs Jacob Misiorowski grades elite (Pitching+ 130)

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Jackson Chourio (R)hit 71% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Luis Lara (S)hit 66% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3William Contreras (R)hit 66% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Andrew Vaughn (R)hit 70% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Gary Sánchez (R)hit 63% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Joey Ortiz (R)hit 58% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Sal Frelickhit 57% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cooper Pratthit 60% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9David Hamilton (L)hit 51% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

NYM LINEUP

  1. 1A.J. Ewing (L)hit 46% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    12%

    RBI

    3%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Francisco Lindor (S)hit 52% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Carson Benge (L)hit 56% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Robert Jr. (R)hit 46% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jared Young (L)hit 50% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Marcus Semien (R)hit 40% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    40%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    17%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    17%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brett Baty (L)hit 41% · HR 7%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    41%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    17%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Christopher Morelhit 36% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    36%

    1+ HIT

    6%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    16%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    12%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    17%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Francisco Alvarez (R)hit 39% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    39%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIL NYM

Game Markets

MIL @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

72%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

20%

Game Total

Over 8.5

31%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

33%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

14%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

15%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore NYM by 2.26 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.60, NYM 2.35
  • Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs Sean Manaea (NYM)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
JM

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

99%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

97%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

70%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

47%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

24%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

13%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 9.7 strikeouts
  • 99% to reach 5+ against NYM
SM

Sean Manaea

NYM SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

87%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 59% to reach 5+ against MIL
JC

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sean Manaea
GS

Gary Sánchez

MIL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Sean Manaea
AV

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Sean Manaea
LL

Luis Lara

MIL · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Sean Manaea
WC

William Contreras

MIL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Sean Manaea
CP

Cooper Pratt

MIL · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Sean Manaea
JO

Joey Ortiz

MIL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sean Manaea
LJ

Luis Robert Jr.

NYM · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
SF

Sal Frelick

MIL · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Sean Manaea
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
FA

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

41%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 41%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
DH

David Hamilton

MIL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Sean Manaea
JY

Jared Young

NYM · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 10%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

12%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

3%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 56%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
BB

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

43%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 43% against 56%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
MS

Marcus Semien

NYM · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

42%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 42% against 56%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
CM

Christopher Morel

NYM · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

38%

Hits

2+ hits

6%

Total Bases

2+ bases

17%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

12%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 38% against 56%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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