BETFLYAISIGN IN
LOS ANGELESLAD
80-53 · +1 NL WEST · L2 · 6-4 L10
@THU 7:15 PM ETATL HOME PARK
78-55 · +1 NL EAST · W3 · 5-5 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
78°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
RHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
2.61
IP
151.2
K/9
8.6
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
0.90
L5 STARTS2.01 ERA · 25% K · 7.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
27%
27%
13%
13%
13%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerCutterCurveballSinkerSlider
Chris Sale
LHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+117
ERA
2.20
IP
135.0
K/9
11.1
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.03
L5 STARTS2.70 ERA · 37.1% K · 2.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
40%
39%
12%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Chris Sale · Over 7.5 8+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

+130 FanDuel43% book56% +13pp

Chris Sale · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

-145 Fanatics59% book72% +13pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

LAD ATL

Game Markets

LAD @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

31%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

32%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

38%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

27%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore LAD by 0.52 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAD 3.24, ATL 3.76
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs Chris Sale (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
YY

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

88%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
  • 79% to reach 5+ against ATL
CS

Chris Sale

ATL SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

40%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.0 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against LAD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%25.0%OPS-against.582
vs Left-handedK%24.8%OPS-against.527
ATL vs LHP (team)OPS.717K%20.9%

CHRIS SALE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%30.3%OPS-against.560
vs Left-handedK%31.6%OPS-against.645
LAD vs RHP (team)OPS.767K%20.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

LAD BATTERS vs CHRIS SALE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
LAD 0·ATL 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
LAD 1·ATL 4
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%LAD
LAD 74 · ATL 51 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-26ATL 6-5 · One-run game
2026-08-25ATL 4-3 · One-run game
2026-05-10ATL 7-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
LAD50¢ · 50%
ATL53¢ · 53%
Total 7
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
LAD -1.5— · —
ATL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→7→10.5→7→10.5→7last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

LAD OFFENSE

.314L15 team wOBA
-2 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

ATL OFFENSE

.285L15 team wOBA
-31 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT78° · 4mph out to LF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
78°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity70%
Rain19%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO