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KANSAS CITYKC
59-75 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 9-1 L10
@THU 7:07 PM ETTOR HOME PARK
65-69 · +5 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
TORONTOTOR
Weather
73°F · 11mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Noah Cameron
LHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
4.02
IP
143.1
K/9
8.0
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.21
L5 STARTS1.28 ERA · 22% K · 7.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
29%
21%
20%
17%
10%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutterCurveballSliderSinker
Spencer Arrighetti
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
4.73
IP
91.1
K/9
9.0
BB/9
5.1
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS7.54 ERA · 18% K · 16.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
30%
13%
10%
Curveball4-Seam FastballSweeperSinkerChangeupCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Noah Cameron · Under 17.5 <18 Outs

early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup

+125 Fanatics44% book51% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC TOR

Game Markets

KC @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

37%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.18 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: KC 4.49, TOR 4.69
  • Noah Cameron (KC) vs Spencer Arrighetti (TOR)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NC

Noah Cameron

KC SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

79%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

57%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against TOR
SA

Spencer Arrighetti

TOR SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

32%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

NOAH CAMERON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.0%OPS-against.648
vs Left-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.752
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.703K%18.9%

SPENCER ARRIGHETTI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.582
vs Left-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.792
KC vs LHP (team)OPS.709K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TOR BATTERS vs NOAH CAMERON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

KC BATTERS vs SPENCER ARRIGHETTI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
KC 1·TOR 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
KC 1·TOR 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%TOR
KC 48 · TOR 63 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-26TOR 3-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-08-25KC 5-3
2025-09-21TOR 8-5
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
KC53¢ · 53%
TOR51¢ · 51%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
KC -1.5— · —
TOR +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→5.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

KC OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

TOR OFFENSE

.311L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT73° · 11mph out to RF
ROGERS CENTRE
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
73°F
Wind11 mph out to RF
Humidity64%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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