BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

HOU vs NYY

Houston Astros at New York Yankees

Thursday, August 27, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the HOU @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

HOUSTONHOU
0·0
NEW YORKNYY
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

HOU DUGOUTNYY DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

HOU Leadoff (R) vs HP

CT88.8
CV78.7
FB94.3
CV80.5
FB93.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

HOU Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · HOU LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYY to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYY -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYY

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYY wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYHOU Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

NYY Over 4.5 runs

49%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 5-for-15 (.333) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career · 73°F, 15mph wind · hitter-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGEHOU

HOU STARTER

Hayden Wesneski

AVERAGE
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 31% · 45% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 25% · 14% whiffSinker · 19% · 11% whiff

NYY STARTER

Gerrit Cole

AVERAGE
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 49% · 22% whiffSlider · 20% · 28% whiffChangeup · 14% · 22% whiff

Gerrit Cole grades avg (Pitching+ 105) vs Hayden Wesneski grades avg (Pitching+ 99)

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 69% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 77% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    77%

    1+ HIT

    42%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    57%

    2+ BASES

    42%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 63% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jose Altuve (R)hit 62% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Daulton Varsho (L)hit 59% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Christian Walker (R)hit 62% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Yainer Diaz (R)hit 65% · HR 16%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Taylor Trammell (L)hit 55% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Cam Smith (R)hit 55% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Trent Grisham (L)hit 62% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ben Rice (L)hit 69% · HR 33%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    33%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Luis García Jr. (L)hit 74% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    56%

    2+ BASES

    42%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Cody Bellingerhit 60% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 57% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Spencer Jones (L)hit 57% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)hit 53% · HR 15%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Wells (L)hit 50% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9José Caballero (R)hit 48% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

HOU NYY

Game Markets

HOU @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

37%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

47%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.51 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.67, NYY 4.84
  • Hayden Wesneski (HOU) vs Gerrit Cole (NYY)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
HW

Hayden Wesneski

HOU SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

46%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against NYY
GC

Gerrit Cole

NYY SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against HOU
BR

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
LJ

Luis García Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 36% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
YA

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

44%

Total Bases

2+ bases

61%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 36% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
JP

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
TG

Trent Grisham

NYY · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
CW

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
YD

Yainer Diaz

HOU · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
IP

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
JA

Jose Altuve

HOU · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
SJ

Spencer Jones

NYY · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
CB

Cody Bellinger

NYY · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
DV

Daulton Varsho

HOU · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
JJ

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
GJ

George Lombard Jr.

NYY · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
TT

Taylor Trammell

HOU · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
CS

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
AW

Austin Wells

NYY · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
JC

José Caballero

NYY · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.