AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

COL vs WSH

Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals

Thursday, August 27, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the COL @ WSH simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

COLORADOCOL

0·0

WASHINGTONWSH

TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

COL Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.3

FB94

FB93.7

FB93.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

COL Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

WSH to win

44%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

WSH -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL WSH

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

WSH wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYCOL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Washington wins

56%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN

LINEUP EDGEEVEN

COL STARTER

Gabriel Hughes

SHAKY

2.4
PROJECTED Ks: 94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 55% · 17% whiffCurveball · 11% · 31% whiffChangeup · 10% · 10% whiff

WSH STARTER

Jake Irvin

AVERAGE

3.7
PROJECTED Ks: 95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 28% · 21% whiffCurveball · 23% · 38% whiffSinker · 20% · 12% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker are getting hit hard lately.

Jake Irvin grades avg (Pitching+ 95) vs Gabriel Hughes grades poor (Pitching+ 94)

COL LINEUP

1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 70% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
2Cole Carrigg (S)hit 63% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
3Willi Castro (S)hit 65% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
4TJ Rumfield (L)hit 67% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
5Connor Norby (R)hit 57% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
6Troy Johnston (L)hit 66% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Brett Sullivan (L)hit 55% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
8Zac Veen (L)hit 54% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 53% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN

WSH LINEUP

1CJ Abrams (L)hit 69% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
2Dylan Crews (R)hit 64% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
3Andrés Chaparro (R)hit 67% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
4Daylen Lile (L)hit 67% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
5Brady House (R)hit 63% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
6Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 65% · HR 9%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Jacob Young (R)hit 61% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
8Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 57% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
9Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 52% · HR 3%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
3%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
9%
3+ BASES
5%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

COL WSH

Game Markets

COL @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

36%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.18 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: COL 4.57, WSH 4.61
Gabriel Hughes (COL) vs Jake Irvin (WSH)
Run on confirmed lineups

Gabriel Hughes

COL SP · vs. WSH

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

41%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 2.4 strikeouts
9% to reach 5+ against WSH

Jake Irvin

WSH SP · vs. COL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
30% to reach 5+ against COL

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Andrés Chaparro

WSH · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Willi Castro

COL · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jake Irvin

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Jake Irvin

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Jake Irvin

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Connor Norby

COL · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jake Irvin

Troy Johnston

COL · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jake Irvin

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 2 · bats S
Facing Jake Irvin

Keibert Ruiz

WSH · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Brett Sullivan

COL · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Jake Irvin

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Jorbit Vivas

WSH · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Zac Veen

COL · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Jake Irvin

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Jake Irvin

Nasim Nuñez

WSH · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Gabriel Hughes

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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