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AI MODEL READ

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BAL vs STL

Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals

Thursday, August 27, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BAL @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BALTIMOREBAL
0·0
ST. LOUISSTL
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

BAL DUGOUTSTL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.4
CH85.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

BAL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

STL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

STL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL STL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

STL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYBAL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 21 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEBAL
LINEUP EDGEBAL

BAL STARTER

Trevor Rogers

AVERAGE
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 24% whiffChangeup · 22% · 24% whiffSweeper · 13% · 30% whiff

STL STARTER

Gordon Graceffo

SHAKY
3.3
PROJECTED Ks
92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 39% · 10% whiffSlider · 31% · 27% whiffChangeup · 12% · 19% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Gordon Graceffo grades poor (Pitching+ 92) vs Trevor Rogers grades avg (Pitching+ 104)

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Jackson Holliday (L)hit 62% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pete Alonso (R)hit 74% · HR 34%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    34%

    HOME RUN

    56%

    2+ BASES

    42%

    3+ BASES

    36%

    4+ BASES

    49%

    RBI

    25%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 64% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Samuel Basallohit 68% · HR 26%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)hit 63% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Dylan Beavers (L)hit 63% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Coby Mayo (R)hit 60% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Colton Cowser (L)hit 59% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Leody Taveras (S)hit 53% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

STL LINEUP

  1. 1José Fermín (R)hit 60% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Iván Herrera (R)hit 62% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jordan Walker (R)hit 66% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alec Burleson (L)hit 67% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Joshua Báez (R)hit 53% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Blaze Jordan (R)hit 58% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ramón Uríashit 49% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nathan Church (L)hit 51% · HR 8%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Pedro Pagés (R)hit 45% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BAL STL

Game Markets

BAL @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

65%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

30%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

STL -1.5

22%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

56%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore STL by 1.79 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 5.47, STL 3.68
  • Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs Gordon Graceffo (STL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
TR

Trevor Rogers

BAL SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 35% to reach 5+ against STL
GG

Gordon Graceffo

STL SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against BAL
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

34%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

39%

RBIs

1+ RBI

50%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

26%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gordon Graceffo
SB

Samuel Basallo

BAL · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Facing Gordon Graceffo
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gordon Graceffo
CE

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Gordon Graceffo
CC

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gordon Graceffo
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Gordon Graceffo
JH

Jackson Holliday

BAL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gordon Graceffo
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
DB

Dylan Beavers

BAL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gordon Graceffo
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
BJ

Blaze Jordan

STL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
JB

Joshua Báez

STL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
LT

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gordon Graceffo
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
RU

Ramón Urías

STL · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 63%.

  • Batting 7
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
PP

Pedro Pagés

STL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Trevor Rogers

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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