Not yet announced by the team.
Not yet announced by the team.
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Landen Roupp · Under 16.5 <17 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Nate Furman · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot bat vs Cabrera
Drew Cavanaugh · Under 0.5 <1 RBIs
RBI specialist hitting in front of traffic
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
ARI @ SF · full-game reads
Moneyline
ARI to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
SF F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
37%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
46%
Run Line
SF -1.5
32%
Team Total
ARI Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
33%
THE READ
ARI projects to outscore SF by 0.26 runs across 5,000 trials.
ARI SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
39%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
4%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
42%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
29%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
SF SP · vs. ARI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
30%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
3%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
35%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
22%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
SF · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
SF · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
SF · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
SF · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
SF · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
ARI · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
SF · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
ARI · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
ARI · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
ARI · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.
SF · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 59%.
SF · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.
SF · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 59%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits LHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Marine air kills carry to RCF.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Mean score sim 4.0–3.7 · projected total 7.7 runs · built on locked lineups
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
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