AI MODEL READ
LEAGUE AVGTEX vs CWS
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TEX @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CWS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CWS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CWS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CWS wins F5
event 1 / 76 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TEX STARTER
MacKenzie Gore
AVERAGE- 6.2
- PROJECTED Ks
- 99
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
CWS STARTER
Sean Burke
AVERAGE- 5.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 100
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Sean Burke grades avg (Pitching+ 100) vs MacKenzie Gore grades avg (Pitching+ 99)
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
TEX @ CWS · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
CWS F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
47%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
46%
Run Line
CWS -1.5
29%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
TEX projects to outscore CWS by 0.58 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TEX 4.60, CWS 4.02
- MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs Sean Burke (CWS)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MacKenzie Gore
TEX SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
33%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
39%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
- 79% to reach 5+ against CWS
Sean Burke
CWS SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
66%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
29%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
- 63% to reach 5+ against TEX
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.