BETFLYAISIGN IN
TAMPA BAYTB
78-54 · +1 AL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@WED 1:10 PM ETDET HOME PARK
62-70 · +4 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 2-8 L10
DETROITDET
Weather
80°F · 11mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Adrian Johnson K+0.3%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Freddy Peralta
RHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
5.14
IP
140.0
K/9
8.5
BB/9
3.5
WHIP
1.41
L5 STARTS6.02 ERA · 18.1% K · 5.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
53%
22%
15%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSliderSweeper
Troy Melton
RHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
1.80
IP
95.0
K/9
7.6
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.03
L5 STARTS1.98 ERA · 17.4% K · 6.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
19%
19%
9%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderCutterSplit-FingerSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

Under 3.5 (F5) · f5_total

under edge from the run-rate model in F5

— Kalshi46% book59% +13pp

Under 4.5 (F5) · f5_total

under edge from the run-rate model in F5

— Kalshi59% book69% +10pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Junior Caminero · Over 3.5 4+ TB

engine edge vs Kalshi batter total bases

— Kalshi21% book34% +13pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 51%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TB DET

Game Markets

TB @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

DET -1.5

32%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore DET by 0.29 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TB 4.14, DET 3.85
  • Freddy Peralta (TB) vs Troy Melton (DET)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against DET
TM

Troy Melton

DET SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 29% to reach 5+ against TB
JC

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Troy Melton
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
YD

Yandy Díaz

TB · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Troy Melton
JA

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Troy Melton
CS

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Troy Melton
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
LH

Liam Hicks

TB · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Troy Melton
CK

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
BC

Brett Callahan

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JM

Jorge Mateo

TB · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Troy Melton
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JD

Jonny DeLuca

TB · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Troy Melton
RP

Richie Palacios

TB · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Troy Melton
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
CM

Cedric Mullins

TB · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 22% against 27%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Troy Melton
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

FREDDY PERALTA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.2%OPS-against.742
vs Left-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.811
DET vs RHP (team)OPS.733K%22.4%

TROY MELTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.0%OPS-against.443
vs Left-handedK%17.8%OPS-against.712
TB vs RHP (team)OPS.755K%18.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

DET BATTERS vs FREDDY PERALTA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TB BATTERS vs TROY MELTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TB 1·DET 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
TB 1·DET 6
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%DET
TB 66 · DET 69 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-25DET 4-1
2026-08-24TB 4-1
2026-06-03DET 7-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

TB OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

DET OFFENSE

.266L15 team wOBA
-50 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT80° · 11mph out to LF
COMERICA PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.97 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Deep LC/RC. Suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind11 mph out to LF
Humidity47%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
JOHNSON
Called K rate+0.3% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr320

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RAYS 51%

Mean score sim 4.1–3.8 · projected total 8.0 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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