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AI MODEL READ

PRE-LINEUP

PIT vs SD

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PIT @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PITTSBURGHPIT
0·0
SAN DIEGOSD
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PIT DUGOUTSD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Spencer Horwitz (L) vs HP

FB92
FB94
CV75.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Spencer Horwitz in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SPENCER HORWITZ

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SD to win

38%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSpencer Horwitz at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 84 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

San Diego wins

59%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPIT
LINEUP EDGEPIT

PIT STARTER

Bubba Chandler

GOOD
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 48% · 22% whiffSlider · 21% · 25% whiffChangeup · 15% · 25% whiff

SD STARTER

Randy Vásquez

AVERAGE
3.3
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 20% whiffCutter · 24% · 21% whiffSinker · 15% · 11% whiff

Randy Vásquez grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs Bubba Chandler grades good (Pitching+ 106)

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Spencer Horwitz (L)hit 64% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 73% · HR 32%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    32%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    57%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 70% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Esmerlyn Valdez (R)hit 71% · HR 29%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Oneil Cruzhit 71% · HR 31%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    46%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Gonzales (R)hit 68% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jake Mangum (S)hit 64% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 66% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jacob Gonzalez (L)hit 55% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 72% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 58% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 62% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ty France (R)hit 64% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 61% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luis Rengifo (S)hit 59% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Gavin Sheets (L)hit 53% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 53% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Freddy Fermin (R)hit 48% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PIT SD

Game Markets

PIT @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

34%

Game Total

Over 8.5

61%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

63%

Run Line

SD -1.5

25%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

59%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore SD by 1.54 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 5.92, SD 4.38
  • Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs Randy Vásquez (SD)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
BC

Bubba Chandler

PIT SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

34%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against SD
RV

Randy Vásquez

SD SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

52%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

77%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against PIT
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Randy Vásquez
OC

Oneil Cruz

PIT · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

48%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Randy Vásquez
EV

Esmerlyn Valdez

PIT · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Randy Vásquez
RJ

Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Randy Vásquez
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
BR

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 34% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Randy Vásquez
NG

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Randy Vásquez
TF

Ty France

SD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
SH

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Randy Vásquez
JM

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Randy Vásquez
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
LR

Luis Rengifo

SD · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
GS

Gavin Sheets

SD · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ RBIs at 12% against 14%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
JG

Jacob Gonzalez

PIT · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Randy Vásquez
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
FF

Freddy Fermin

SD · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Bubba Chandler

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.