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AI MODEL READ

LEAGUE AVG

PHI vs SEA

Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PHI @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PHILADELPHIAPHI
0·0
SEATTLESEA
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PHI DUGOUTSEA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Kyle Schwarber (L) vs HP

FB93.8
CV76.9
FB91.8
SL86

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Kyle Schwarber in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · KYLE SCHWARBER

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SEA to win

35%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SEA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SEA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SEA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYKyle Schwarber at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 76 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Seattle wins

65%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEPHI

PHI STARTER

Jesús Luzardo

GOOD
10.0
PROJECTED Ks
112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 38% · 48% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 25% · 18% whiffChangeup · 19% · 38% whiff

SEA STARTER

Bryan Woo

GOOD
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
114
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 26% whiffSinker · 19% · 12% whiffSlider · 15% · 33% whiff

Bryan Woo grades good (Pitching+ 114) vs Jesús Luzardo grades good (Pitching+ 112)

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 62% · HR 28%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 67% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 67% · HR 5%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alec Bohm (R)hit 55% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Bryson Stott (L)hit 55% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 60% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 51% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Justin Crawford (L)hit 54% · HR 4%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

SEA LINEUP

  1. 1Taylor Ward (R)hit 48% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 55% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Julio Rodríguez (R)hit 52% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Cal Raleigh (S)hit 39% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    39%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Patrick Wisdomhit 40% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    40%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    19%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6J.P. Crawfordhit 45% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    19%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Weston Wilson (R)hit 39% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    39%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    19%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jhonny Pereda (R)hit 44% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    17%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brock Rodden (S)hit 36% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    36%

    1+ HIT

    7%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    15%

    2+ BASES

    7%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    12%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    18%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PHI SEA

Game Markets

PHI @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

65%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

25%

Game Total

Over 8.5

23%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

27%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

18%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

14%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore SEA by 1.44 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PHI 3.80, SEA 2.36
  • Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs Bryan Woo (SEA)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
JL

Jesús Luzardo

PHI SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

99%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

72%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

92%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 10.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 10.0 strikeouts
  • 99% to reach 5+ against SEA
BW

Bryan Woo

SEA SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

48%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against PHI
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Bryan Woo
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bryan Woo
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Bryan Woo
BM

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 10% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bryan Woo
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bryan Woo
RA

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
JR

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Bryan Woo
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Bryan Woo
CR

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

41%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 41%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Bryan Woo
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Bryan Woo
TW

Taylor Ward

SEA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 54%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
JC

J.P. Crawford

SEA · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 54%.

  • Batting 6
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
JP

Jhonny Pereda

SEA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 54%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
PW

Patrick Wisdom

SEA · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

41%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 41% against 54%.

  • Batting 5
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
WW

Weston Wilson

SEA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

41%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 41% against 54%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
BR

Brock Rodden

SEA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

38%

Hits

2+ hits

7%

Total Bases

2+ bases

17%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

12%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 38% against 54%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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