AI MODEL READ
LEAGUE AVGHOU vs NYY
Houston Astros at New York Yankees
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the HOU @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYY to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYY -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYY
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYY wins F5
event 1 / 72 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
New York Y wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
HOU STARTER
Peter Lambert
SHAKY- 4.1
- PROJECTED Ks
- 93
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
NYY STARTER
Elmer Rodríguez
SHAKY- 2.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 75
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Elmer Rodríguez grades poor (Pitching+ 75) vs Peter Lambert grades poor (Pitching+ 93)
III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
HOU @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
50%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
58%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
31%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
48%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore NYY by 0.61 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: HOU 4.82, NYY 4.21
- Peter Lambert (HOU) vs Elmer Rodríguez (NYY)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Peter Lambert
HOU SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
31%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
44%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
29%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
- 40% to reach 5+ against NYY
Elmer Rodríguez
NYY SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
14%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
- 13% to reach 5+ against HOU
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.