AI MODEL READ

LEAGUE AVG

CLE vs LAA

Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CLE @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CLEVELANDCLE

0·0

LOS ANGELESLAA

TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

Steven Kwan (L) vs HP

SL85.2

SL84

SL84.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Steven Kwan in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · STEVEN KWAN

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAA to win

44%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAA wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYSteven Kwan at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 78 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Los Angeles A wins

67%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAA

CLE STARTER

Joey Cantillo

SHAKY

5.5
PROJECTED Ks: 93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 33% · 16% whiffCurveball · 30% · 38% whiffChangeup · 26% · 41% whiff

LAA STARTER

Grayson Rodriguez

AVERAGE

4.1
PROJECTED Ks: 100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 54% · 17% whiffChangeup · 24% · 37% whiffSlider · 12% · 36% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Grayson Rodriguez grades avg (Pitching+ 100) vs Joey Cantillo grades poor (Pitching+ 93)

CLE LINEUP

1Steven Kwan (L)hit 68% · HR 5%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
2Travis Bazzana (L)hit 62% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3José Ramírez (S)hit 63% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4Jo Adell (R)hit 65% · HR 17%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
5Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 63% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
6Angel Martínez (S)hit 59% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
7Angel Genao (S)hit 61% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Hedges (R)hit 53% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 55% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN

LAA LINEUP

Lineup not posted yet — check back closer to first pitch.

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

CLE LAA

Game Markets

CLE @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

28%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore LAA by 0.83 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: CLE 4.49, LAA 3.67
Joey Cantillo (CLE) vs Grayson Rodriguez (LAA)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Joey Cantillo

CLE SP · vs. LAA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

21%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
68% to reach 5+ against LAA

Grayson Rodriguez

LAA SP · vs. CLE

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

67%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
39% to reach 5+ against CLE

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Grayson Rodriguez

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Grayson Rodriguez

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats S
Facing Grayson Rodriguez

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Grayson Rodriguez

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Grayson Rodriguez

Angel Genao

CLE · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Facing Grayson Rodriguez

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 2 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Grayson Rodriguez

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Grayson Rodriguez

Austin Hedges

CLE · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 11%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Grayson Rodriguez

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.