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AI MODEL READ

PRE-LINEUP

CIN vs SF

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CIN @ SF simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CINCINNATICIN
0·0
SAN FRANCISCOSF
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CIN DUGOUTSF DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Héctor Rodríguez (L) vs HP

SL84.9
CH84.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Héctor Rodríguez in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · HÉCTOR RODRÍGUEZ

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SF to win

55%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SF -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SF

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SF wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYHéctor Rodríguez at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 78 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Cincinnati wins

66%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESF
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

CIN STARTER

Nick Lodolo

SHAKY
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 18% whiffSinker · 26% · 10% whiffCurveball · 25% · 40% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

SF STARTER

Logan Webb

GOOD
3.7
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 29% · 10% whiffChangeup · 25% · 28% whiffSweeper · 20% · 23% whiff

Logan Webb grades good (Pitching+ 105) vs Nick Lodolo grades poor (Pitching+ 93)

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 57% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 66% · HR 14%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Sal Stewart (R)hit 65% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4JJ Bleday (L)hit 57% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 54% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Dane Myers (R)hit 56% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Matt McLain (R)hit 49% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jose Trevino (R)hit 48% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)hit 44% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Jonah Cox (R)hit 65% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Rafael Devers (L)hit 64% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Osleivis Basabe (R)hit 59% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Buddy Kennedy (R)hit 52% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Turner Hill (L)hit 56% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Andrew Knizner (R)hit 57% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Christian Koss (R)hit 54% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Grant McCrayhit 51% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Shay Whitcombhit 51% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CIN SF

Game Markets

CIN @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SF to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

SF -1.5

36%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

30%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

SF projects to outscore CIN by 0.30 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CIN 3.48, SF 3.78
  • Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs Logan Webb (SF)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
NL

Nick Lodolo

CIN SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

56%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against SF
LW

Logan Webb

SF SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

76%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against CIN
RD

Rafael Devers

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Webb
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Logan Webb
JC

Jonah Cox

SF · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Logan Webb
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Webb
GM

Grant McCray

SF · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 10% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
OB

Osleivis Basabe

SF · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 10% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
HR

Héctor Rodríguez

CIN · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Webb
AK

Andrew Knizner

SF · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
TH

Turner Hill

SF · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
DM

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Webb
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
BK

Buddy Kennedy

SF · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 24% against 26%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
MM

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Webb
JT

Jose Trevino

CIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Webb
KH

Ke'Bryan Hayes

CIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Webb

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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