CHICAGOCHC
76-57 · +2 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
@2026-08-26ARI HOME PARK
ARIZONAARI
Weather
117°F · 9mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCubs 52%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CHC ARI

Game Markets

CHC @ ARI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

ARI F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

64%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

64%

Run Line

ARI -1.5

33%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

57%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

CHC projects to outscore ARI by 0.47 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 5.57, ARI 5.10
  • Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
MB

Matthew Boyd

CHC SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

65%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

78%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

65%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against ARI
ER

Eduardo Rodriguez

ARI SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

67%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against CHC
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
CC

Corbin Carroll

ARI · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
NA

Nolan Arenado

ARI · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
IV

Ildemaro Vargas

ARI · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
TT

Tyrone Taylor

CHC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
GP

Geraldo Perdomo

ARI · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
CK

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
PR

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
GA

Gabriel Arias

CHC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Eduardo Rodriguez
RW

Ryan Waldschmidt

ARI · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
JF

Jose Fernandez

ARI · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 6
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
TT

Tim Tawa

ARI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
JM

James McCann

ARI · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 69%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
JL

Jordan Lawlar

ARI · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 69%.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs LHP (team)OPS.798K%17.6%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.746K%21.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CHC BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CHC 1·ARI 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CHC 5·ARI 0
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%CHC
CHC 74 · ARI 0 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-26AZ 5-4 · One-run game
2026-08-25CHC 7-0 · Blowout
2026-05-03CHC 8-4
MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

LINEUP FORM · L15

CHC OFFENSE

.342L15 team wOBA
+26 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

ARI OFFENSE

.326L15 team wOBA
+10 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
ENVIRONMENT117° · 9mph out to RF
CHASE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Slight offensive tilt.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
117°F
Wind9 mph out to RF
Humidity8%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

CUBS 52%

Mean score sim 5.65.1 · projected total 10.7 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read