AI MODEL READ
LEAGUE AVGBOS vs MIA
Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the BOS @ MIA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIA wins F5
event 1 / 78 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
BOS STARTER
Sonny Gray
AVERAGE- 4.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 102
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
MIA STARTER
Ryan Gusto
AVERAGE- 3.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 98
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Ryan Gusto grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Sonny Gray grades avg (Pitching+ 102)
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
BOS @ MIA · full-game reads
Moneyline
BOS to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
MIA F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
46%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
MIA -1.5
31%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
BOS projects to outscore MIA by 0.40 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: BOS 4.43, MIA 4.03
- Sonny Gray (BOS) vs Ryan Gusto (MIA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Sonny Gray
BOS SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
71%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
- 48% to reach 5+ against MIA
Ryan Gusto
MIA SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
33%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
3%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
45%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
- 23% to reach 5+ against BOS
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.