AI MODEL READ
LEAGUE AVGBAL vs STL
Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the BAL @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
STL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
STL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL STL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
STL wins F5
event 1 / 81 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
St. Louis wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
BAL STARTER
Kyle Bradish
AVERAGE- 4.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 101
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
STL STARTER
Michael McGreevy
AVERAGE- 2.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 96
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Michael McGreevy grades avg (Pitching+ 96) vs Kyle Bradish grades avg (Pitching+ 101)
III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
BAL @ STL · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
STL F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
STL -1.5
28%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
51%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
BAL projects to outscore STL by 0.94 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: BAL 4.97, STL 4.03
- Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs Michael McGreevy (STL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Kyle Bradish
BAL SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
69%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
- 49% to reach 5+ against STL
Michael McGreevy
STL SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
72%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
20%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
66%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
- 15% to reach 5+ against BAL
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.