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TORONTOTOR
63-67 · +4 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@SAT 1:35 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
73-55 · +2 AL EAST · W5 · 7-3 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
74°F · 6mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Dylan Cease
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
2.42
IP
137.2
K/9
13.1
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.06
L5 STARTS1.63 ERA · 36.5% K · 11.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
29%
11%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerCurveballSweeper
Ryan Weathers
LHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
3.56
IP
134.0
K/9
9.4
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS0.89 ERA · 21% K · 7.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
24%
20%
18%
10%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSweeperSinkerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

TOR2 · spread

Cease has the rotation edge

— Kalshi34% book44% +10pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR NYY

Game Markets

TOR @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

30%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

36%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

24%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

26%

THE READ

TOR projects to outscore NYY by 1.07 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 4.23, NYY 3.17
  • Dylan Cease (TOR) vs Ryan Weathers (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DC

Dylan Cease

TOR SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

97%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

94%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

67%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

81%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

35%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

21%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 9.9 strikeouts
  • 97% to reach 5+ against NYY
RW

Ryan Weathers

NYY SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

65%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
  • 79% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

DYLAN CEASE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%35.0%OPS-against.539
vs Left-handedK%37.4%OPS-against.535
NYY vs LHP (team)OPS.720K%24.9%

RYAN WEATHERS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.6%OPS-against.691
vs Left-handedK%27.8%OPS-against.669
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.704K%19.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs DYLAN CEASE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs RYAN WEATHERS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 0·NYY 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
TOR 6·NYY 9
15 played · 4 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%NYY
TOR 171 · NYY 189 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-21NYY 3-1
2026-08-16NYY 4-3 · One-run game
2026-08-15TOR 4-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.313L15 team wOBA
-3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

NYY OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-30 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT74° · 6mph in from CF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
74°F
Wind6 mph in from CF
Humidity77%
Rain8%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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