MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS
LAD3 · spread
Skubal's ace-tier arsenal vs softer counterpart
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
PIT @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
64%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
52%
Game Total
Over 8.5
37%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
37%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
44%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
27%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore PIT by 1.05 runs across 5,000 trials.
PIT SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
28%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
8%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
32%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
21%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
LAD SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
94%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
85%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
73%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
41%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
71%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
HR-friendly, low BABIP.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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