NEW YORKNYM
58-71 · +5 NL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@SAT 7:10 PM ETCWS HOME PARK
67-61 · +1 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10
CHICAGOCWS
Weather
76°F · 10mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Christian Scott
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
3.51
IP
84.2
K/9
11.2
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS5.19 ERA · 28.9% K · 7.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
50%
23%
17%
4-Seam FastballSweeperCutterSlider
Luis Castillo
RHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
4.99
IP
115.1
K/9
8.0
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.37
L5 STARTS5.29 ERA · 17.8% K · 6.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
28%
16%
12%
4-Seam FastballSliderSinkerChangeup
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMets 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM CWS

Game Markets

NYM @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

28%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

NYM projects to outscore CWS by 0.96 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 5.10, CWS 4.14
  • Christian Scott (NYM) vs Luis Castillo (CWS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CS

Christian Scott

NYM SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against CWS
LC

Luis Castillo

CWS SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

CHRISTIAN SCOTT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.3%OPS-against.649
vs Left-handedK%28.8%OPS-against.688
CWS vs RHP (team)OPS.724K%23.6%

LUIS CASTILLO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.637
vs Left-handedK%16.1%OPS-against.890
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.692K%22.5%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

CWS BATTERS vs CHRISTIAN SCOTT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs LUIS CASTILLO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 0·CWS 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 0·CWS 1
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
65%NYM
NYM 13 · CWS 7 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-21CWS 6-4
2025-05-28CWS 9-4
2025-05-27NYM 6-4
MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.321L15 team wOBA
+5 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

CWS OFFENSE

.336L15 team wOBA
+20 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
ENVIRONMENT76° · 10mph out to RF
RATE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind10 mph out to RF
Humidity49%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO