BETFLYAISIGN IN
MINNESOTAMIN
63-66 · +2 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 8:40 PM ETSD HOME PARK
69-60 · +2 NL WEST · W1 · 7-3 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
81°F · 6mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Dean Kremer
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+88
ERA
5.40
IP
53.1
K/9
8.9
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.18
L5 STARTS6.64 ERA · 21.1% K · 7.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
21%
Split-Finger4-Seam Fastball
Casey Mize
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.18
IP
102.0
K/9
8.4
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS4.46 ERA · 17.3% K · 6.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
25%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerSlurve
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIN SD

Game Markets

MIN @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

SD -1.5

36%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.77 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIN 3.82, SD 3.95
  • Dean Kremer (MIN) vs Casey Mize (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DK

Dean Kremer

MIN SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 56% to reach 5+ against SD
CM

Casey Mize

SD SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

56%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

27%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against MIN

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

DEAN KREMER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.0%OPS-against.842
vs Left-handedK%22.0%OPS-against.963
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.711K%21.7%

CASEY MIZE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.708
vs Left-handedK%25.4%OPS-against.506
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.735K%21.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs DEAN KREMER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIN BATTERS vs CASEY MIZE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIN 0·SD 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIN 0·SD 1
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
63%MIN
MIN 15 · SD 9 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-22SD 6-2
2025-08-31MIN 7-2
2025-08-30SD 12-3 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIN OFFENSE

.307L15 team wOBA
-9 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

SD OFFENSE

.329L15 team wOBA
+13 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT81° · 6mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind6 mph out to RF
Humidity63%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO